Space Access Update #125 7/7/11
Copyright 2011 by Space Access Society
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This is a heads-up - there
will be significant Congressional action next week on NASA budget items that
matter to us. Our window to make a
difference should open in the next day or so.
The next thing we send out will almost certainly be a Political Action
Alert, another chance for you to make a positive difference in this country's
future in space.
(As we mentioned in Update
#124, those of you who took part in our last political push helped nudge the
process noticeably in the right direction - the rest of you, what are you
waiting for? This time, join in - once
you have the targeting info, make the call and help us make a real difference!)
Background:
The next step in deciding
NASA's budget for next year is officially happening today. The House Appropriations Committee's
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies (CJS
Subcommittee, or just CJS for short) is formally "marking up"
(setting the detailed funding numbers in) its version of the FY 2012 Commerce,
Justice, and Science Appropriations bill ("the mark") today. NASA's funding is a major part of this bill.
We didn't call an alert on
that, because our understanding is that the CJS Subcommittee markup numbers
have actually been set for a while now and the subcommittee was neither
responding to insider requests nor likely to respond to outside pressure with
any changes. Based on what we know, the
first real opportunity to affect the process will be after the CJS Subcommittee's
version comes out, with our target being next Wednesday's (7/13) scheduled
markup of the bill by the full Appropriations Committee.
The CJS Subcommittee actually
released its draft numbers yesterday - see
http://appropriations.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=250023 - and
we'd be surprised if those change, but many of the details we care about aren't
out yet.
Based on what is out, our
preliminary verdict is, not good. It was
already known that the total amount CJS had for FY'12 was down 5.8% from last
year's actual totals, and down 13.9% from the White House FY'12 proposal (but
in the current fiscal climate the White House's proposed increases over FY'11
have become pretty much a dead letter.)
So, average cuts of 5.8% were
the baseline expectation coming into this.
But the CJS Subcommittee mark reduces NASA's overall funding 8.9%, to $16.8
billion versus FY'11's $18.45 billion. Of
the known NASA cuts, most of the headlines yesterday went to the subcommittee's
cancellation of the James Webb Space Telescope.
(Its huge science value aside, JWST serves as sad proof that
organizational dysfunction producing massive delays and cost overruns is not
unique to NASA's rocket-development branches.)
We are more concerned with
NASA's Exploration and Space Technology accounts. FY'12 Exploration is reduced from this year's
total, down 4.2% from this year's $3.808 billion at $3.649 billion. Not so bad on the surface, except that the
CJS mark mandates spending $1.063 billion for the MPCV crew vehicle and $1.985
billion for the SLS heavy lifter (a 10% increase) out of this Exploration total.
Do the math and this leaves
$601 million for everything else NASA Exploration is supposed to do next
year. This does not bode well for
Commercial Crew Development (CCDev) getting the
planned $850 million to allow support of multiple competing US commercial crew
carriers. If CCDev
fails, NASA is stuck paying ever-increasing Russian prices for Soyuz rides to
Station for the next decade. (Soyuz seat
prices are over $60 million each, and rising.)
Cutting the CCDev program, aimed at developing
low-cost US commercial competitors for Soyuz, seems a false economy to say the
least.
NASA Space Technology
meanwhile comes out of the CJS mark at $375 million. It's harder to pin down last year's numbers
here, because Space Technology now combines what used to be the separate Space
and Exploration Technology accounts, and these aren't broken out in the final
FY'11 Continuing Resolution that's currently funding the government.
For what it's worth, though, NASA's
new technology cupboard is bare, due to decades of new technology base funding
getting eaten by headline program overruns.
NASA's new exploration plan calls for applying much of the savings from
Shuttle shutdown to greatly increasing new space technology work aimed at
drastically reducing future exploration costs.
Space Technology was supposed to expand to $1.024 billion dollars next
year.
Instead, the CJS mark proposes
cutting it back to 18% lower than the last combined total we can find on
record, FY'10's $458 million. Cutting
rather than growing Space Technology greatly reduces the chances we'll ever
have any affordable exploration mission to fly on SLS (in the unlikely event
SLS ever actually flies.)
So, we'll have a fight on our
hands this coming week. Stand by for
targeting data!
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Space Access Society's sole
purpose is to promote radical reductions in the cost of reaching space.
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Space Access Society
space.access@space-access.org
"Reach low orbit and you're halfway to anywhere in the Solar System"
- Robert A. Heinlein